Soros made most of his money in 'short' positions

Summary: 

1. Soros makes most of his money through 'short positions'. Soros initially made $1 billion shorting pound in 1995, then 5 years later shorting Thai Bhat, and then shorting Japanese Yen in 2012-13. This confirms my observation that in trading there are more 'significant one-off' opportunities in short positions.

2. But these short opportunities come only at specific times. You cannot be ahead of time. 

3. Soros made most of his money in 'currencies' 

4. Soros lost $1 bn as a result of stock rally post Donald Trump's election (So, he was short the market/stocks leading to the US election). This shows even with so much experience as Soros, it is still possible to lose money. Yet, a loss of $1 billion is a meagre 3% of his networth of about $30 billion

5. Soros is now 86 years old. So, Soros made his big bet on pound in 1991 when i.e. when he was 61 years old. Investing is an experienced man's game!

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Also, see the WSJ article below, Santley Drukenmiller made the opposite bet and made money post Trump election. 

Note the timing of Stanley Drukenmiller. He square off his bearish positions on the night of elections. 

- He squared off his long-gold bet on the night of elections. Shows, how effective he was in squaring off his position. As immediately after trump's election, gold prices fell by about 15% or so. (Shows, how even the best and brightest play till the last moment. He should have squared off a little earlier. Yet, the very fact he squared off the position shows that he's only looking at the broad picture and not the $1, $2, $5 or $10 or $50 dollars. He squared off based on the broad trend. Even when he purchased he purchased at about $1050 per ounnce. I don't think he waited for $1000 round number. Shows how the big guys play in the market. They are looking at broad trends, not the prices till the last decimals.)

- He went short on bonds (on all global bonds) post or just before trump's elections. Shows another very good macro move. Again, he's concentrating the broad picture. Not the nitty gritty. 


http://www.wsj.com/articles/billionaire-george-soros-lost-nearly-1-billion-in-weeks-after-trump-election-1484227167

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Regulator Accidentally Posts Soros’s Short Positions

by Ellen Proper and Colin McClelland

January 26, 2017, 12:48 PM GMT+5:30 January 26, 2017, 6:42 PM GMT+5:30

Bets against stocks were revealed briefly on AFM’s website

‘Human error’ blamed for publication of positions back to 2012

George Soros

Some of hedge fund billionaire George Soros’s short positions dating back to 2012 were published on the Dutch financial market regulator’s website this week due to “human error,” according to the regulator AFM.

The short positions, bets on a stock declining, were “between 0.2 percent and 0.5 percent,” of shares outstanding in the companies shorted, AFM spokesman Ward Snijders said by phone on Thursday. The Dutch regulator publishes shorts of 0.5 percent or higher on its website on a daily basis. The smaller amounts were posted by mistake, he said.

The Financial Times earlier reported that some of the positions, including bets against Dutch banks, including ING Groep NV, appeared briefly on the website on Tuesday evening. ING declined to comment on Thursday.

Soros, whose fortune is estimated at $25.2 billion by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, is in the same league as Warren Buffett when it comes to investors copying their trades as they try to ride the coattails of the super successful. Short positions, which are typically closely guarded, in Deutsche Bank AG jumped when it was revealed in June that Soros had bet that the stock would fall after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. The German bank fell 14 percent on the first day after the ballot.

Trump Loss

The Dutch regulator’s spokesman couldn’t disclose whether there has been contact with Soros following Tuesday’s error. A spokesman for Soros didn’t respond to an e-mail seeking comment.

The 86-year-old investor lost about $1 billion by betting against the market after the election of U.S. President Donald Trump, according to the Wall Street Journal this month. The hiring of a chief investment officer may reduce Soros’s role, the paper reported.

Soros has managed as much as $30 billion as founder and chairman at New York-based Soros Fund Management LLC. Currency bets on the pound in 1992, the Thai baht five years later and the yen in 2012-13 helped Soros attain a fortune ranked 26th globally by Bloomberg. He’s donated $8 billion to charities since founding the pro-democracy Open Society Foundations in 1979.

Regulators have pushed for more transparency around short positions. The European Union imposed rules in 2012 on short bets against some securities in the political bloc to reduce the risk of destabilizing sovereign-debt markets. The U.K.’s Financial Services Authority introduced a regulation in June 2008 requiring disclosure of short positions of more than 0.25 percent for companies that are selling new shares in rights offerings.