Thursday, 6 October 2016

Labor Force Participation Rate - US for 40 years (1975 to 2015)





1. Median is about 65% labor participation rate

2. That means about 35% of US people over the age of 16 are not working. So, what are they doing? Mostly, must be home-makers, college students (?), or just idling. Is this why TV consumption is so high in the US. 35% of the US population is a huge number - about 100 million i.e. 10 crores.

Below is a nice article explaining what Labor Force Participation is.

The Labor Force Participation Rate Fell and It Won't Get Up

3 Reasons Why People Dropped Out and Won't Come Back

labor force participation rate
 Many teachers were let go during the recession. It's become harder for them to get back into the labor force.. Photo: Steve Prezant/Getty Images

Definition: The Labor Force Participation Rate is how many people are available to work as a percent of the total population.

Formula

Here's how to calculate the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR):
LFPR = Labor Force / Civilian Non-Institutionalized Population 
where the Labor Force = Employed + Unemployed
To calculate the formula correctly, you must first understand the underlying definitions outlined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The BLS is the Federal agency that reports on the labor force and its participation rate every month in the Jobs Report. Here they are:
Civilian Non-institutional Population - Everyone living in the U.S. who is 16 or older MINUS inmates of institutions such as prisons, nursing homes and mental hospitals and MINUS those on active duty in the Armed Forces.
Labor Force - Everyone who is classified as either Employed or Unemployed.
Employed - Anyone aged 16+ in the civilian non-institutional population who worked in the last week. That means they worked an hour or more as paid employees or 15 hours or more as unpaid workers in a family-owned business or farm. It also includes those who had jobs or businesses, but didn't work that week because they were on vacation, sick, were on maternity or paternity leave, on strike, were in training, or had some other family or personal reasons they didn't work.
It doesn't matter whether it was paid time off or not.  Each worker was only counted once, even if they held two or more jobs.  Volunteer work and work around the house did not count. For more, see How Is Employment Defined?
Unemployed - Those age 16 or more who weren't employed, but were available for work and actively looked for a job within the past four weeks.
People who were only waiting to be recalled to a job from which they had been laid off were counted as unemployed, even if they didn't look for work. Contrary to popular belief, it has nothing to do with the number of people who applied for or receive unemployment benefits. Instead, this figure is derived from a BLS survey. Here's more on the definition of unemployed.
People who would like work, but haven't ACTIVELY looked for it in the last month are NOT counted as being in the labor force no matter how much they want a job. They are counted in the population, however. 
So that you know, the BLS does keep track of them. Some are called "marginally attached to the labor force." These are people who have looked in the past year, but just not in the previous month. They might have had school or family responsibilities, ill health, or transportation problems that prevented them from looking recently.
Some of the marginally attached are called "discouraged workers" because they report that they've given up looking for work because they don't believe there are any jobs for them.

Other reasons include lack schooling or training, the potential employer thinks they are too young or old, or they've suffered discrimination. For more, see What Is the Real Unemployment Rate? 
The other group that isn't included in the labor force are students, homemakers, retired people and those under 16 who are working. They are, however, counted in the population.

Current Example

Here's how to calculate the labor force participation rate for August 2016:
 Number (in millions)  Percent 
Population (P)      253.854 
Not in Labor Force        94.391 
  Marginally attached          1.713 
      Discouraged            .576 
Labor Force (LF)       159.463 62.8% of Population
   Employed       151.030 59.5% of Population
   Unemployed           7.849   4.9% of Labor Force

Historical Labor Force Participation Rate

The labor force participation rate edged up between 1948 until the late 1990s. From 1948 - 1963, rates remained below 60%. However, rates slowly inched up as more women entered the labor force, breaking 61% in the early 1970s. The rate increased to 63% in the 1980s and reached a peak of 67.3% in 2000.
Once the 2001 recession hit, the LFPR rate fell to 66%. It didn't improve throughout the "jobless recovery." The 2008 financial crisis sent the participation rate below 66% and it's fallen ever since. By August 2015, it reached a low of 62.6%. See more at Labor Force Statistics.
That drop should mean that the supply of workers is falling. Fewer workers should be able to negotiate for higher wages. But that didn't happen. Instead, income inequality increased as average income levels suffered. Workers couldn't compete when jobs were being outsourced. They also couldn't compete with robots. Businesses found it more cost effective to replace capital equipment instead of hiring more workers. 

3 Reasons the LFPR Is Falling

It's unlikely the participation rate will ever return to its 2000 peak.  First, nearly a third of the unemployed have been without a job for six months or more. Only 10% of these long-term unemployed find a job each month. It becomes so frustrating that they drop out of the labor force. They may not return because they don't have updated skills and employers aren't willing to take a chance with them. 
What's the most worrying is that 2.9 million of those who have dropped out are between the ages of 25 and 54. That's prime earning years. They may not have a chance to recover. Despite improving job opportunities, they aren't returning to the labor force. That's called structural unemployment. That's when the skills would-be workers have no longer match what employers need. Without training, they won't return to the labor force. (Source: Gene Epstein, "The Mystery of the Missing Workers," Barron's, March 16, 2015.)
Third, is the aging of America. As Baby Boomers reach retirement age, they are dropping out of the labor force. That's why the labor force participation rate may never regain its past levels

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-04/education-bubble-harvard-mba-worth-500000?curator=alphaideas&utm_source=alphaideas

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